The Equation: What the Matildas need to do

With the final round of games to play, Italy are the only Group C side so far guaranteed a place in the FIFA Women’s World Cup France 2019™ Round of 16.

The Italians join hosts France, Germany, England, Japan, Netherlands, Canada, Sweden and the USA in the first wave of qualifiers. 

On Wednesday morning at 5am AEST, the Matildas face Jamaica in Grenoble while, at the same time, Italy and Brazil go head-to-head in Valenciennes.

Below we look at the possible outcomes and examine what each team needs from their final group-stage encounter to keep their FIFA Women’s World Cup dream alive.

Opta Widget: Group C

To win the group

Italy guaranteed their place in the knockout phase with one game left, beating Jamaica 5-0 last Saturday (AEST) to make it a perfect six points from two matches, with a goal difference of +6. 

Le Azzurre need a point from their clash with Brazil to ensure they top the pool and face a third-placed opponent at the next stage.

Brazil, who have three points from their opening win against Jamaica (GD +2), will need to win to stand any chance of topping the group on goal difference. 

A victory for the South Americans could open the door for the Matildas (three points, GD 0) to take the No.1 spot in Group C.

Depending on the result in the other match, a big win against Jamaica (GD -8) could see the Green and Gold overtake Italy at the top. 

Deadlock at the top

If Brazil beat Italy and Australia defeat Jamaica, the top three contenders would all finish on six points, with any combination of teams in first, second and third place possible.

The order would be decided in the first instance by goal difference.

If that is equal, the next tiebreaker would be goals scored, then head-to-head record: for example, if Australia and Brazil are level on goal difference and goals scored, Australia would finish higher in the table courtesy of the team's 3-2 win over the South Americans. 

In this scenario, all three nations will advance to the Round of 16.

WATCH: All the highlights from the Matildas' 3-2 comeback win against Brazil

Going through second or third

If Italy win or draw against Brazil to lock up the group, three points for the Matildas would see them take second place. 

Australia would also take the runners-up spot if they are held to a draw by Jamaica and the Italians triumph in Valenciennes.  

Draws in both games would mean the ladder remains as it is, with Italy in first position, Brazil in second and Australia third.

The Matildas would then face a wait to know their next-round opponents, although they would be confirmed as one of the four best third-placed teams to progress.

Going into the third round of games, only Group A (Nigeria) and Group B (China PR) have teams in third place with as many as three points. 

In Group D Argentina lie third with one point so far, while in Group E (Cameroon) and Group F (Chile) the team in third have yet to earn a point. 

WATCH: The Matildas make the journey from Montpellier to Grenoble ahead of their final Group C match at France 2019

Jamaica’s outside chance

The Reggae Girlz can only progress if they win against Australia by four goals or more.

That would mean they overtake the Matildas, who would finish fourth and be eliminated from the competition.

Even with a huge win over Australia, the Caribbean outfit would be on a knife-edge waiting for the final results from the other groups. 

A Jamaica win by a smaller margin would leave them bottom and Australia third.

In that scenario, the Matildas would still be in with a chance of advancing as one of the four best third-placed teams.

Next opponents

The team that finishes top of the pile in Group C will face a third-placed side from Group A, B or F in the Round of 16. Nigeria, China PR and Chile presently occupy those spots.

The second-placed team in Group C will face the runners-up of Group A, which, as it stands, is Norway.

The team that advances third in Group C would likely play the winner of Group A, which is currently host nation France, although depending on results it could also be the winner of Group B (currently Germany). 

Upcoming Match | FIFA Women’s World Cup France 2019™ – Group C

Jamaica v Australia
Date: Wednesday, 19 June 2019 (AEST)
Venue: Stade des Alpes, Grenoble
Kick-off: 5.00am AEST (9.00pm local time, Tuesday 18 June)

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