The Matildas will take on USA on Thursday morning at 3 am (AEST) with every permutation in Group B still possible, and many possible routes to the quarter-finals available.
Read our summary below as to how the Matildas can advance to the Paris 2024™ quarter-finals.
In summary…
A win or draw against USA guarantees that the Matildas advance to the quarter-finals.
Canada failing to defeat Colombia in Group A also most likely secures the Matildas place in the quarter-finals, even in the event of a Matildas defeat to USA.
The Women’s Olympic Football Tournament
12 teams compete in the Women’s Olympic Football Tournament. After a group stage consisting of three groups of four, the top two teams in every group – as well as the two best third-placed teams – advance to the quarter-finals.
Australia is competing in Group B, with Germany, Zambia and USA as our opponents. After a loss against Germany and a dramatic win against Zambia, the Matildas currently sit on three points with a goal difference of -2 after two games.
Heading into the final game against USA, it is still possible for the Matildas to finish anywhere in Group B.
The team that finishes first in the group takes on the second-placed team in Group C on Saturday, 11 pm AEST.
The team that finishes second in the group takes on the second-placed team in Group A on Sunday, 3 am AEST.
The team that finishes third in the group – if they are among the two best third-place teams – will either take on the team that finishes first in Group C on Sunday, 1 am AEST, or the team that finishes first in Group A on Sunday, 5 am AEST.
If the Matildas win against USA…
…then they are guaranteed to advance to the quarter-finals. Where they finish in the group, however, could be anywhere from first to third depending on goal difference and other results.
If Germany were to defeat Zambia in the other game in Group B, then this scenario would see three teams – Germany, Australia, and the United States – on six points. Australia would have to defeat USA by two more goals than the margin that Germany defeat Zambia in order to finish second, and the Matildas would have to win by four goals to overtake the United States in first.
At the very least, a win guarantees qualification as a third-place team.
If the Matildas draw against USA…
…then they are guaranteed to advance to the quarter-finals, most likely finishing third in the group.
If Germany defeats or draws against Zambia, Australia would finish third, but would be guaranteed to finish as the best third-placed team. If Zambia defeat Germany, Australia would finish second in the group, with the USA finishing in first place.
In Group A - featuring France, Canada, Colombia and New Zealand - any of the teams could finish third, on three points, which is one less than Australia in this scenario. If New Zealand defeat France and Canada defeat Colombia, all four teams would finish on three points, and the group would be decided on goal difference.
If France or Colombia earn at least a point, they will finish first and second. Permutations for that particular group aside, the relevant point for Australian fans is that no third-placed team can possibly finish higher than three points in Group A, meaning a draw would be enough for the Matildas to advance.
Even though Canada have won both of their previous games in the tournament, the maximum amount of points Canada can receive is three, after they were deducted six points for violating the FIFA Disciplinary Code and Olympic Football Tournament regulations.
In Group C, either Brazil, Japan or Nigeria will finish third. If the third-placed team is Brazil or Japan, it is possible that they will also finish on four points. However, because the top two third-placed teams advance, this does not threaten Australia’s qualification in this scenario.
If the Matildas lose against USA…
…then they may still advance to the quarter-final if ONE of these scenarios occurs: if Canada and New Zealand fail to win their final games in Group A; if Canada defeat Colombia by three goals plus the margin of Australia’s defeat, while New Zealand fail to defeat France; or if Spain defeats Brazil by a margin that is two goals plus the margin of Australia’s defeat, while Nigeria fails to defeat Japan, in Group C.
If Zambia beats Germany by 1-0 and the USA overcome the Matildas by the same scoreline, Australia and the Copper Queens would be on the same number of points, 3, and the same number of goal difference, -3, meaning the next tie-breaker would be "Points obtained in the matches played between the teams in question", meaning Australia would advance.
It can get complicated. To show how complicated it can get, here’s one scenario that we didn’t list – if New Zealand defeat France by three goals plus Australia’s margin of defeat, while Canada defeat Colombia by five goals plus Australia’s margin of defeat, the Matildas would advance.
That seems like a far-fetched series of events, so let’s put it this way: the simplest way for Australia to advance in the event of a USA victory on Thursday morning (AEST) is Canada failing to defeat Colombia in Group A.
It is a game that is very challenging to predict. Colombia will be given a boost by the return of Chelsea striker Mayra Ramirez and will be heavily motivated to get a result, given the possibility of finishing bottom of the group if they do not.
Canada have been in fantastic form, and are the defending gold medallists. However, in this scenario, Australian fans will be heartily cheering for Colombia.
Australia takes on the United States in their final group match at 3 am AEST on Thursday, 1 August for a place in the Paris 2024 quarter-finals at the Stade de Marseille, Marseille.
Australia v United States
Date: Wednesday 31 July 2024 (local) / Thursday 1 August 2024 (AEST)
Kick-off: 7.00pm (local) / 3.00am AEST
Venue: Stade de Marseille, Marseille, France
Broadcast: Channel 9, 9Now & Stan Sport (Australia)